Forecasting and weighted pipeline value
Weighted pipeline value tells you how much revenue you can realistically expect to close, based on each deal's stage probability. It's the single most useful number for cash-flow planning.
How weighting works
Each pipeline stage has a probability percentage (the chance a deal in that stage will close). Multiplying deal value by stage probability gives weighted value.
| Stage | Probability | $10,000 deal weighted at |
|---|---|---|
| New Lead | 10% | $1,000 |
| Contacted | 20% | $2,000 |
| Qualified | 40% | $4,000 |
| Quote Sent | 60% | $6,000 |
| Negotiation | 80% | $8,000 |
| Won | 100% | $10,000 |
| Lost | 0% | $0 |
Set stage probabilities
Settings → Pipelines → your pipeline → click each stage
Set probability % — base it on your historical conversion rate from this stage to Won (not on what feels right)
Save
TIP — Calibrate using historical data
If you have at least 90 days of pipeline history, your probabilities should be data-derived: of all deals that ever entered "Quote Sent," what % closed Won? That's your probability. Don't guess. Recalibrate every 6 months as your sales process matures.
Read the forecast
Pipeline view → top of page shows: total open value, weighted value, expected close this month/quarter
Filter by close date to see only deals expected to close in a specific window
Use the per-rep view to see individual forecasts (great for 1:1s and quota tracking)
Forecast hygiene
Forecasts are only as good as the data feeding them. Run these checks weekly:
All open deals have an expected close date set — deals without dates are invisible to forecasting
All open deals have a value set — zero-value deals don't count
No deals are stuck in stages older than 60 days without movement (these inflate the forecast falsely)
Lost deals are actually marked Lost — not abandoned in late-stage limbo
